What should be baseline/reference period for climate change impact simulation ?

Well, This is look hot topic for current time. In climate change studies, baseline year period is more important and necessary as it considered as reference period to assess the impact of future climate change. But the baseline year period  is suggested 30 years time periods of 1960-1990 by WMO (WMO, 2007). According to IPCC definition A baseline period is needed to define the observed climate with which climate change information is usually combined to create a climate scenario. Initially, IPCC suggested to use time period 1931 to 1950 then 1951 to 1980 thereafter 1961 to 1990 for climate change studies. And the reason is later periods (1961 to 1990) are likely to have larger anthropogenic trends embedded in the climate data, especially the effects of sulfate aerosols over regions such as Europe and eastern USA.

After regularly update the recommended period is now 1981-2010 by WMO (Page 1) and in future, WMO will use time period 1991-2020. However, IPCC used 20 years of period 1986-2005 to compare the climate change (Table  3.1) and will use the years 1995–2014 in its Sixth Assessment Report. But what I remember GCM’s input data were 1850-2005 and afterwards year periods 2005 to 2100 are GCM’s output and most of studies considered time period 1970-2004 as baseline period.

Effect of different baseline period of US

According to NOAA blog "The influence of long-term global warming is obvious: the earliest map in the series has the most widespread and darkest blues, and the most recent map has the most widespread and darkest reds. Today, the normal annual temperatures across the country are warmer than the 20th-century average virtually everywhere. From 1901-1930, the annual average temperature was mostly colder than the 20th-century average"

Adaptations and mitigation: Questions and answers part 1

Dear friends,

Some questions and answers related with adaptation and mitigation to cope with climate change.

Q: Why do we need adaptation strategies?

Ans: Climate adaptation activities are efforts to prepare or adjust to future climate changes. Updating building infrastructure to better withstand a hotter climate is one example of adapting to climate change. Adaptation can consist of a wide variety of actions by an individual, community, or organization to prepare for, or respond to, climate change impacts.

Q: How to implement adaptation strategies at the local level?

Ans: Adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects by society or ecosystem. Adaptation can consist of a wide variety of actions by an individual, community, or organization to prepare for, or respond to, climate change impacts.

Implementation adaptation strategies at the local level:

- Information on risks and vulnerabilities to identify needs and appropriate adaptation options

- Build projected climate change related trend to present scenario and vulnerability assessment based on current climate change.

- Integration of climate adaptation into sustainable development policy, resource and

infrastructure planning, and design standards at national to local levels

- Develop robust resource mobilisation mechanisms for adaptation that ensure the flow of both financial and technical support to local people.

- Education and communication

- Learning & knowledge management

- Research and development

Climate preparedness and adaptation

References:

• https://sites.google.com/view/rk-srivastava/publications

Climate Change: questions and answers part 1

Dear Friends, 

Climate change is now occurring all over world in a different way. Some countries are facing as extreme events such as extreme temperature, high intensity of rainfall and changed rainfall pattern. Some countries are also facing see level rises, high frequency of flood, melting ices and breaking icebergs, high frequency of wild fires due to rising temperature and these events are abruptly increasing and observed. Recently,  one report has been published in dw news "how melting icebergs in all over world" and weather warning in Europe has been increase as Europe now facing unusual stroms. Moreover, one report was published about drying Rhine river due to climate change and there are several incidents in India. However, Climate change is not a new topic. It was happening in historic time and several civilization was over due to extreme events.

Climate change

Further, climate change is long term process and it can not be over in one day. That can stop by spreading awareness about environment and how climate change is happening. There are several programs and research already ongoing funded by several agencies such as FAO, WHO, UNFCC, IPCC and local governments. Some time they also release some regulation regarding the climate change extreme and warnings.

Here, I am presenting some questions and answers which i submitted during one training course " Building resilience to climate change courses I and II" by united nation university Japan at IIT Kharagpur in year 2015. Hopefully, it will to help to under stand climate change. If any you have any question, Please let me know in comment section. Feel free for comments and suggestion.

NOAA logo

• Atmosphere has been mostly directly affected by human activities.Atmosphere contain the green house gases and these gases directly affect the atmosphere.

• There is rapid increase in the production of green house gases with increase in the no. of industries and also by methane gas in the atmosphere.

• Increase in radiative forcing from human activity is attributable mainly to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. CO2 is produced by fossil fuel burning and other activities such as cement production and tropical deforestation.

• The atmosphere contains several trace gases which absorb and emit infrared radiation. These so-called greenhouse gases absorb infrared radiation, emitted by the Earth’s surface.

• The action of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in trapping infrared radiation is called the greenhouse effect.

• Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide.

Question and answer:

Q: Identify the 6 main components of the biophysical Earth system. Which one do you think has the most important role in determining global climate? Which of these are likely to have been most directly affected by human activities during the last thousand years?

Ans: The 6 main components of the biophysical Earth system is:

1. Lithosphere

2. Hydrosphere

3. Cryosphere

4. Atmosphere

5. Troposphere

6. Stratosphere

Since atmosphere contains the green house gases and is characterized by temperature, wind, precipitation, clouds and other weather elements, so atmosphere has the most important role in determining global climate.