Climate Change: questions and answers part 2

Q: What is the key principle in naming variables in an influence diagram? How can one identify the focus variable in a feedback loop?

Ans: The key principles in naming variables in an influence diagram may be either in increasing or decreasing in a feedback loop,which are as follows :
1. Quantification of variables

2. Use clear language that describes the variables in their neutral sense

3. The links (arrows) in diagram should indicate the flow of influence or information between the variables.

One can identify the focus variable in a feedback loop if it answers the following questions positively by:

1. How the variable effect the environment/object.

2. Will the variable have positive impact.

3. What is the importance of such a variable in a feedback loop.

4. Will the variable have multiple benefits to affected variables.

5. Recognition of benefits by selection of that focus variable.

6. Prior experimental trial or research concluded for selection of focus variable.

Q: climate change can increase disaster losses significantly?
Ans: Climate change can increase disaster losses significantly in following ways:
1) Direct  climate  impact changes  weather  variables  e.g.  average temperature,  rainfall,  wind  speed,  seasonality  and disruptions  to  major  weather  systems  e.g.  ENSO.
2) Indirect  impacts  to  natural  systems  e.g.   changes   to   fire   regimes,   disease   vector   profiles,   ecosystem  functioning,  fauna  breeding  cycles,  flora  pollination  etc.
Indirect  impacts are also  influenced  by  non-climate  anthropogenic  influences.  E.g.  fire regimes  are  affected  by: climate (rainfall, temperature, wind) natural  ecosystem functioning  (vegetation  growth, distribution) and human influences  (deforestation, plantation forestry, fire  prevention). Thus,climate change can increase disaster losses significantly.

Ques: What approaches would you take to reduce climate change associated risks under uncertainty of projections?
Ans: Approaches that should be taken to reduce climate change associated risks under uncertainty of projections are as follows :
1) Imperfection and limitation on science such as feedback and tipping point uncertainties need to be quantified through comparison with observations.
2) coping with extremes associated with uncertainty projections during climate change.
3) Reduction strategies should be adopted.
4) Rare extreme events should have a proper check out else,they will become more frequent causing large damages unless the reduction measures are implemented.

Q: What is your projection of the future (society, economy, CO2 emission, climate)?
Ans: My projection of the future is socio-economic balance of the society in global context. Socio-economic changes are key drivers of projected changes in future emissions and climate, and are also key determinants of most climate change impacts, potential adaptations and vulnerability. They also influence the policy options available for responding to climate change. Many scenarios are developed at a broader scale, requiring downscaling of aggregate socio-economic scenario information. the CO2 emission sources should be regulated so that the concentration of GHG gases in atmosphere is low. Promotion of planting more and more trees should be adopted to safe guard our environment. Economic feasibility study and risk analysis strategies for climate change should be there.

Q: Do you think that we can (should) mitigate the climate change (i.e., reducing CO2 emission very much)?
Ans: Yes, we should mitigate the climate change through reducing the CO2 emission. Human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas, have caused a substantial increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. This increase in atmospheric CO2 from about 280 to more than 380 parts per million (ppm) over the last 250 years is causing measurable global warming.
Potential adverse impacts include sea-level rise; increased frequency and intensity of wildfires, floods, droughts, and tropical storms; changes in the amount, timing, and distribution of rain, snow, and runoff; and disturbance of coastal marine and other ecosystems. Rising atmospheric CO2 is also increasing the absorption of CO2 by seawater, causing the ocean to become more acidic, with potentially disruptive effects on marine plankton and coral reefs. If we have a proper check and concern  and took proper regulatory measures to the above aforesaid problems then we can mitigate the climate change.

Q: Can you give an example of agricultural production practice for climate change adaptation and mitigation?
Ans:  Climate change mitigation in agriculture production practice can be done in following no. of ways: 
A) Improved cropland management 
– nutrient management,
– tillage/residue management and
– water management
B) Restoration of degraded soils
C) Agriculture can help to mitigate climate change by
– reducing emissions of greenhouse gases and
– sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere in the soil.
D) The potential of organic agriculture for both effects is high. 
E) Inclusion of leguminous crops, to reduce emission of N2O -N
F) Diversified crop rotation with green manure
G) Avoiding continuous flooding in rice will help in reducing emission of CH4 

The improved practices stops soil erosion and converts carbon losses into gains. If mitigation strategies are adopted effectively, climate change will favor adaptation also, hence crop yield will be enhanced as it would utilize carbon which was preserved during mitigation strategies adopted. 

Increased agricultural output in a region will be there if adaptation and mitigation works simultaneously but complementary to each other.

Q: What do you think about green energy and green world ?

Ans: I hope for 'Green world with green energy' in the near future, comprising of greenery and pollution free environment with emphasis on utilization of green energy in global context.

What should be baseline/reference period for climate change impact simulation ?

Well, This is look hot topic for current time. In climate change studies, baseline year period is more important and necessary as it considered as reference period to assess the impact of future climate change. But the baseline year period  is suggested 30 years time periods of 1960-1990 by WMO (WMO, 2007). According to IPCC definition A baseline period is needed to define the observed climate with which climate change information is usually combined to create a climate scenario. Initially, IPCC suggested to use time period 1931 to 1950 then 1951 to 1980 thereafter 1961 to 1990 for climate change studies. And the reason is later periods (1961 to 1990) are likely to have larger anthropogenic trends embedded in the climate data, especially the effects of sulfate aerosols over regions such as Europe and eastern USA.

After regularly update the recommended period is now 1981-2010 by WMO (Page 1) and in future, WMO will use time period 1991-2020. However, IPCC used 20 years of period 1986-2005 to compare the climate change (Table  3.1) and will use the years 1995–2014 in its Sixth Assessment Report. But what I remember GCM’s input data were 1850-2005 and afterwards year periods 2005 to 2100 are GCM’s output and most of studies considered time period 1970-2004 as baseline period.

Effect of different baseline period of US

According to NOAA blog "The influence of long-term global warming is obvious: the earliest map in the series has the most widespread and darkest blues, and the most recent map has the most widespread and darkest reds. Today, the normal annual temperatures across the country are warmer than the 20th-century average virtually everywhere. From 1901-1930, the annual average temperature was mostly colder than the 20th-century average"

Adaptation strategy for maize crop

 Dear Friends,

I have noticed that the recently published most manuscript showed nitrogen and irrigation managements are the best adaptation strategy to cope with climate change. Unfortunately, they create environmental problem rather than increasing crop yield.

Identification of the appropriate management strategy and technologies to attain the aforesaid objective is critical. To head towards zero waste with agriculture while maintaining environmental sustainability in the future is even more daunting. Substantially, the environmental management systems can be balanced by eco-friendly practices in agriculture (manage the sowing dates), extended production responsibilities (planning for sowing management effects), and improved crop handling (reduction in water wastage). Thus, a balanced economy can be achieved by holistic and systematic thinking (crop modelling), toxic substances reduction/elimination (application of fewer fertilizers) leading to waste reduction. Apart from this, farmer awareness with the policies and ongoing research can also help in strategic management with agriculture, and thereby environment can easily be collaborated and outreached. (Srivastava et al., 2022)"

N Fertilizer

 High application of N fertilizers can create environment problem as when runoff occurs those fertilizers will become pollutant. Also, ammonia emissions will be higher due to dry surface because of extreme weather. Ammonia considered as green house gas which increase the climate change. Hence, in any condition, Fertilizer can not be good adaptation strategy. 

Irrigation

Further, irrigation will increase due to extreme temperature or warming climate. But, ground water is declining due to high demand for drinking and agriculture is the only sector which consume a lot of water. Hence, irrigation is also not the good adaptation strategy to cope with climate change.

Sowing dates

Other adaptation such as evolution of new variety is expensive. Hence, shifting sowing date can be a good adaptation strategy. But shifting sowing date is a local based management in India. As India is a diverse country and management can vary at regional level too. Hence local management based adaption strategy can be useful.  Moreover, the estimation of crop productivity was more significant on a local scale rather than on a regional one.  Implementing local approaches to improve the adaptation strategies through crop-climate modelling for the farmers and stakeholders. Hence, effective adaptation strategies need to be evaluated on a local basis first than on a regional basis to reduce the impact of climate change. Thus, modelling of adaptation strategies will be locally relevant for a longer term to be resilient to future climate change.

Sowing date as adaptation Strategy

Recent study evaluated shifting sowing dates as adaptation strategy for maize crop in Eastern India. For that Four RCP's (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) were used  for the year period 2021-50 and 2051-2081 of 17 GCMs. Methodology is presented below.

Below figure (a and b) shows the evaluation of sowing dates to simulated average grain yield for all the sites with current climate (baseline) under rainfed and irrigated seasons using violin plot for all scenarios. Moreover, the coefficients of variables were estimated to analyze the performance of the sowing dates under rainfed and irrigated seasons.

Figure also shows that early sowing dates 25 Dec and 5 Jan are suitable for all the RCP scenarios of CMIP5 climate projections and gave higher yield under both time periods. Whilst, the late sowing dates (25 Jan and 5 Feb) were unsuitable due to high uncertainty, low grain yield than the baseline, and earlier sowing dates for both the time periods. The sowing date (15 Jan) gave a notable estimated yield but the yield deviation was high for both time slice 2050s and 2080s in all the RCP scenarios.

How shifting sowig dates affects

Thus, the early sowing dates faced a dry spell while the late sowing dates faced high rainfall, thereby indicating crop failure in both cases. The shifting sowing dates can alter the grain filling period which is beneficial for the accumulation of dry matter in the grain. In addition, the distribution of rainfall within the crop growing period can alter the effects of the temperature. Moreover, increasing CO2 can harm crop yield if the maximum photosynthesis rate is exceeded.

Above figure indicates that the earlier sowing date 30 May and late sowing date 30 June under rainfed condition, while earlier sowing dates 25 December under irrigated condition showed less reduction in grain yield in both historic and future periods. Moreover, shifting sowing dates had a larger influence in the future periods than the historic period for the Purlia and Birbhum districts, while West Medinipur and Bankura districts, earlier sowing dates showed less reduction in grain yield in comparison to the delayed sowing dates under irrigated condition. Furthermore, late sowing date 30 June had a larger influence in future periods than the historic one, while in West Medinipur district, earlier sowing dates are more influential under rainfed conditions. Thus, under the rainfed condition, the earlier sowing dates (30 May and 30 June) show a reduction effect in the grain yield in future periods in all the RCPs for all districts except the West Medinipur. 

However, delaying the sowing period until 10 July had a negative effect for the West Medinipur and Bankura districts specifically. Under irrigated condition particularly, with the late sowing dates a consistent grain yield reduction was observed across all the districts in all scenarios and time periods. Also, all the sowing dates showed a reduction in yield with increasing RCP especially for RCP 8.5, and the time period 2080s had more impact on the grain yield than 2050s in comparison to the historic period. 

Is it beneficial as a management ?

• Well, first of all, well calibrated model needed because of reliability and for that strong data required. 
• The sowing date (5 Jan) was suitable for the time slice 2021–50 in all the RCP scenario, while earlier sowing date (25 Dec) was found to be suitable in the time slice period of 2051–80 with RCPs 8.5 for the irrigated season. 
• The sowing dates, 10 and 20 Jun were effective in RCPs 2.6, and 4.5 for the time slice 2051–2080 under rainfed season. 
• Effectiveness of late sowing dates was higher in RCPs 6.0, and 8.5 for both the time periods under rainfed season. 
• The changing sowing dates can reduce the effect of temperature on sensitive crop growth stage in irrigated season, while it can help to meet the precipitation on the sensitive crop growth stages. 
• Henceforth, the shifting of sowing dates can be adopted effectively and economically with less imports to reduce the detrimental climate change impact.

References:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652622002402?via%3Dihub

https://sites.google.com/view/rk-srivastava/home

Adaptations and mitigation: Questions and answers part 1

Dear friends,

Some questions and answers related with adaptation and mitigation to cope with climate change.

Q: Why do we need adaptation strategies?

Ans: Climate adaptation activities are efforts to prepare or adjust to future climate changes. Updating building infrastructure to better withstand a hotter climate is one example of adapting to climate change. Adaptation can consist of a wide variety of actions by an individual, community, or organization to prepare for, or respond to, climate change impacts.

Q: How to implement adaptation strategies at the local level?

Ans: Adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects by society or ecosystem. Adaptation can consist of a wide variety of actions by an individual, community, or organization to prepare for, or respond to, climate change impacts.

Implementation adaptation strategies at the local level:

- Information on risks and vulnerabilities to identify needs and appropriate adaptation options

- Build projected climate change related trend to present scenario and vulnerability assessment based on current climate change.

- Integration of climate adaptation into sustainable development policy, resource and

infrastructure planning, and design standards at national to local levels

- Develop robust resource mobilisation mechanisms for adaptation that ensure the flow of both financial and technical support to local people.

- Education and communication

- Learning & knowledge management

- Research and development

Climate preparedness and adaptation

References:

• https://sites.google.com/view/rk-srivastava/publications

Climate Change: questions and answers part 1

Dear Friends, 

Climate change is now occurring all over world in a different way. Some countries are facing as extreme events such as extreme temperature, high intensity of rainfall and changed rainfall pattern. Some countries are also facing see level rises, high frequency of flood, melting ices and breaking icebergs, high frequency of wild fires due to rising temperature and these events are abruptly increasing and observed. Recently,  one report has been published in dw news "how melting icebergs in all over world" and weather warning in Europe has been increase as Europe now facing unusual stroms. Moreover, one report was published about drying Rhine river due to climate change and there are several incidents in India. However, Climate change is not a new topic. It was happening in historic time and several civilization was over due to extreme events.

Climate change

Further, climate change is long term process and it can not be over in one day. That can stop by spreading awareness about environment and how climate change is happening. There are several programs and research already ongoing funded by several agencies such as FAO, WHO, UNFCC, IPCC and local governments. Some time they also release some regulation regarding the climate change extreme and warnings.

Here, I am presenting some questions and answers which i submitted during one training course " Building resilience to climate change courses I and II" by united nation university Japan at IIT Kharagpur in year 2015. Hopefully, it will to help to under stand climate change. If any you have any question, Please let me know in comment section. Feel free for comments and suggestion.

NOAA logo

• Atmosphere has been mostly directly affected by human activities.Atmosphere contain the green house gases and these gases directly affect the atmosphere.

• There is rapid increase in the production of green house gases with increase in the no. of industries and also by methane gas in the atmosphere.

• Increase in radiative forcing from human activity is attributable mainly to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. CO2 is produced by fossil fuel burning and other activities such as cement production and tropical deforestation.

• The atmosphere contains several trace gases which absorb and emit infrared radiation. These so-called greenhouse gases absorb infrared radiation, emitted by the Earth’s surface.

• The action of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in trapping infrared radiation is called the greenhouse effect.

• Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide.

Question and answer:

Q: Identify the 6 main components of the biophysical Earth system. Which one do you think has the most important role in determining global climate? Which of these are likely to have been most directly affected by human activities during the last thousand years?

Ans: The 6 main components of the biophysical Earth system is:

1. Lithosphere

2. Hydrosphere

3. Cryosphere

4. Atmosphere

5. Troposphere

6. Stratosphere

Since atmosphere contains the green house gases and is characterized by temperature, wind, precipitation, clouds and other weather elements, so atmosphere has the most important role in determining global climate.