Adaptations and mitigation: Questions and answers part 6

Q: Please describe relationships between climate extreme and climate change, status of climate change in your country.

Relationships between climate extreme and climate change:

1) A warmer atmosphere can hold more water, fueling more intense rain and snow events. But at the other end of the spectrum, the warming climate can amplify conditions conducive to drought—like heatwaves, evapotranspiration and reduced soil moisture. The combination of these two extremes in one location can increase disasters like flooding and landslides.

2) A growing body of evidence shows strong connections between climate change and extreme events, and impacts once thought of as a distant future threat are already occurring and widespread.

3)The Character and severity of impacts from climate extremes depend not only on the extremes themselves but also on exposure and vulnerability.

4) Changing climate leads to changes in the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration,and timing of extreme weather and climate events, and can result in unprecedented extreme weather and climate events.

Status of climate change in India:

a) Extreme Heat: In India, an increase in the linear trend of about 0.4 0C in the surface air temperature has been observed in the past century. A warming trend is visible along the west coast, central India, interior peninsula and the North-Eastern India,but some cooling trends are also visible in the North-West India and parts of south India.

b) Changing Rainfall Patterns: A trend of about 10 to 12% (of the normal) increase in monsoon rains were reported along the west coast, northern Andhra Pradesh and north-western India during the last century. A decreasing trend of about 6 to 8% is observed over the last 100 years over eastern Madhya Pradesh, North-Eastern India and some parts of Gujarat and Kerala (NAPCC,2008).

c) Droughts: Droughts have major consequences. In 1987 and 2002-2003, droughts affected more than half of India’s crop area and led to a huge fall in crop production.

d) Groundwater: it is difficult to predict future ground water levels, falling water tables  can be expected to reduce further on account of increasing demand for water from a growing population and agricultural production.

e) Glacier Melt: The available data on snowfall in Himalayan ranges show a recession in some parts of the Himalayan ranges. The river systems of the Brahmaputra, the Ganges and the Indus draws water directly from melting of the Himalayas.

f) Sea level rise: Due to sea level rise, the fresh water sources near the coastal areas will suffer from salt intrusion. Kolkata and Mumbai, both densely populated cities, are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of sea-level rise, tropical cyclones, and river flooding.

g) Agriculture and food security: Food production in India is sensitive to climate change like variations in temperature and monsoon rainfall. Rise in temperature has a direct impact on the Rabi crop and every 1 degree celcius rise will reduce wheat production by 4 to 5 Million Tons. Every small change in temperature and rainfall has significant effect on the quality and quantity of fruits, vegetables, tea, coffee, basmati rice and aromatic and medicinal plants. It is predicted that a loss of 10 to 40% in production may occur by 2100 due to climate change (NAPCC).

h) Water Security: Urbanization, population growth, economic development, and increasing demand for water from agriculture and industry are likely to aggravate the situation further.

i) Energy Security: Climate-related impacts on water resources can undermine the two dominant forms of power generation in India - hydropower and thermal power generation - both of which depend on adequate water supplies to function effectively.

j) Health: Effluent emissions to water bodies and salination of rivers through sea level rise may increase the incidence of water borne diseases. Deaths due to heat wave are reported from several parts of the country from time to time, particularly during the summer. It is observed that changes in climatic patterns may alter the distribution of vector species (Malaria, Kala-azar, Filaria, Chikungunia, Encephalitis ) and increase its spread in new areas. An increase in temperature and relative humidity may enlarge the transmission windows.

Sourec: https://www.slideshare.net/wgpkumar/climate-change-and-india

Impact of climate change on different crops in India 

Regional variations in mean annual summer monsoon rainfall and the return period of departure from their long-term mean

Shifts in monsoon rainfall behaviour using rainfall distribution patterns for India 

Adaptations and mitigation: Questions and answers part 4

 Q: The importance of conveying scientific information on climate and CC into appropriate actions for the local community and sectors.

Ans:  Lack of awareness exists at all levels from decision maker, officials in sectors and locality, to vulnerable communities.

Therefore we emphasize on the awareness raising for all levels. Health news is a perennial favorite of news outlets, including newspapers, television, radio, and online. The climate change and health story, especially to the degree that it can be localized, has considerable potential to interest local news outlets.

Briefing the editorial board of your local paper, local TV and radio producers, local weather casters, and prominent local bloggers are all potentially helpful options.Framing climate change as a public health issue creates opportunities to engage important new partners in the issue who, in turn, can help explain the issue to the public and decision-makers, and who can help develop and implement response plans. Protecting human health is an issue that crosses institutional, scientific, and political boundaries.

A focus on improving health is an important way to humanize the issue of climate change, and to encourage cross-cutting collaborations across communities. Reframing climate change as a public health issue can help reveal local angles of a global problem, thereby making the problem more concrete, and moving the location of impacts closer to home.

To many people, the problem of climate change is global and abstract, while human health impacts are local and concrete. So, at local level the response to climate change should be closely linked with international policy and national strategy and policy should be issued. By framing climate change as a local public health issue is possible to replace people’s mental associations of climate change as being geographically and socially distant with more proximate and relevant mention associations, such as the risks to children, the elderly, and the poor, in local communities.

 Q: What are the methods to control flood risks?

Ans : In many countries, rivers prone to floods are often carefully managed. Defences such as levees, bunds, reservoirs, and weirs are used to prevent rivers from bursting their banks. When these defences fail, emergency measures such as sandbags or portable inflatable tubes are used. Coastal flooding has been addressed in Europe and the Americas with coastal defences, such as sea walls, beach nourishment, and barrier islands.

A dike is another method of flood protection. A dike lowers the risk of having floods compared to other methods.[citation needed] It can help prevent damage; however it is better to combine dikes with other flood control methods to reduce the risk of a collapsed dike.

A weir, also known as a low head dam, is most often used to create millponds, but on the Humber River in Toronto, a weir was built near Raymore Drive to prevent a recurrence of the flooding caused by Hurricane Hazel in 1954, which destroyed nearly two fifths of the street.

Q: How the flood and Tsunami hazard maps are useful to prevent the flood and Tsunami risks?

Ans : The flood and Tsunami hazard maps are useful to identifying the location of higher risk level area and formulating a plan for when an emergency situation arises. These maps are empirically defined using a deterministic approach based upon historical data.

Q: What is the most efficient option of adaptation for increasing flood magnitude in future you think?

Ans: Many of the recommended adaptation options are considered to be “no- regret” as they are consistent with best practice and would be applicable under any future climate scenario. These include improved monitoring, long term, risk based-integrated planning, enhancement of natural systems, decentralization and diversification of options and general social development and flexible, responsive institutions and systems. 

Three main options of adaptation for increasing flood magnitude:

• Engineering options include

- Technology

- Information and Intelligence （database, early warning system etc）

• Policy options include

- Law （promoting other options）

- Human resources (capacity development, advertisement)

• Socio-economic options include

- Social system （revision of social systems and practices）

- Economic system （insurance, grants, incentive） 

Q: What is the disaster related to water people are mostly concerned in your country? Please pick up a disaster event and report us about it.

Ans:

Drought Disaster in Maharastra, India:

Maharashtra state was affected by the region’s worst drought in 40 years,worst-hit areas are Jalna, Jalgaon and Dhule are also affected by the famine. Millions of people in Maharashtra are at serious risk of hunger after two years of low rainfall in the region.

Flood Disaster in Uttrakhand, India:

On June 2013 Uttarakhand received heavy rainfall,massive Landslides due to the large flashfloods, it suffered maximum damage of houses and structures, killing more than 1000 people, sources claimed the death toll could be rise up to 5000. Uttarakhand Flash Floods is the most disastrous floods in the history of India.

Q: Why are the climate change adaptation is important for sustainable development in your country and sustainability in the world?

Ans: The climate change adaptation is important for sustainable development in India and sustainability in the world:

1) Climate change cannot be totally avoided.

2) Anticipatory and precautionary adaptation is more effective and less costly than forced, last-minute,

emergency adaptation or retrofitting.

3) Climate change may be more rapid and more pronounced than current estimates suggest. Unexpected events are possible.

4) Immediate benefits can be gained from better adaptation to climate variability and extreme atmospheric events.

5) Immediate benefits also can be gained by removing maladaptive policies and practices.

6) Climate change brings opportunities as well as threats. Future benefits can result from climate change

Adaptations and mitigation: Questions and answers part 3

 Q:  How to increase climate change adaptation capacity on sustainable development and sustainability in your country?

Ans: Adaptive capacity - combination of the strengths, attributes, and resources available to an individual, community, society, or organization that can be used to prepare for and undertake actions to reduce adverse impacts, moderate harm, or exploit beneficial opportunities. 

To increase climate change adaptation capacity on sustainable development and sustainability follow as: 

1.Integration of Climate change adaptation into sustainability science and sustainable development policies, strategies, action plan.
2.Management (Adaptive management, learning by doing management, promoting innovation).
3.Development of sustainability science, Science and technology policy innovation;
4.Proactive response to CC for sustainability.
5.Building Nature Harmonious and Resilient Society (NHRS).
6.Capacity building for CCA and sustainability.

7.University led development for CCA and sustainability.

Q: Give a brief sketch (write up) about global radiation budget?

Ans: The Earth's Radiation Budget is a concept used for understanding:

How much energy the Earth gets from the Sun and How much energy the Earth-system radiates back to outer space as invisible light.

Based on the physics principle of conservation of energy, this radiation budget represents the accounting of the balance between incoming radiation, which is almost entirely solar radiation, and outgoing radiation, which is partly reflected solar radiation and partly radiation emitted from the Earth system, including the atmosphere.

Component of Earth's radiation Budget:

1) INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION: Incoming ultraviolet, visible, and a limited portion of infrared energy from the Sun drive the Earth's climate system. Some of this incoming radiation is reflected off clouds, some is absorbed by the atmosphere, and some passes through to the Earth's surface. Larger aerosol particles in the atmosphere interact with and absorb some of the radiation, causing the atmosphere to warm. The heat generated by this absorption is emitted as longwave infrared radiation, some of which radiates out into space.

2) ABSORBED ENERGY: The solar radiation that passes through Earth's atmosphere is either reflected off snow, ice, or other surfaces or is absorbed by the Earth's surface.

3) Emitted LONGWAVE Radiation: Heat resulting from the absorption of incoming shortwave radiation is emitted as longwave radiation. Radiation from the warmed upper atmosphere, along with a small amount from the Earth's surface, radiates out to space. 

4) GREENHOUSE EFFECT: Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (such as water vapor and carbon dioxide) absorb most of the Earth's emitted longwave infrared radiation, which heats the lower atmosphere. In turn, the warmed atmosphere emits longwave radiation, some of which radiates toward the Earth's surface, keeping our planet warm and generally comfortable. Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane increase the temperature of the lower atmosphere by restricting the outward passage of emitted radiation, resulting in "global warming," or, more broadly, global climate change.

What should be baseline/reference period for climate change impact simulation ?

Well, This is look hot topic for current time. In climate change studies, baseline year period is more important and necessary as it considered as reference period to assess the impact of future climate change. But the baseline year period  is suggested 30 years time periods of 1960-1990 by WMO (WMO, 2007). According to IPCC definition A baseline period is needed to define the observed climate with which climate change information is usually combined to create a climate scenario. Initially, IPCC suggested to use time period 1931 to 1950 then 1951 to 1980 thereafter 1961 to 1990 for climate change studies. And the reason is later periods (1961 to 1990) are likely to have larger anthropogenic trends embedded in the climate data, especially the effects of sulfate aerosols over regions such as Europe and eastern USA.

After regularly update the recommended period is now 1981-2010 by WMO (Page 1) and in future, WMO will use time period 1991-2020. However, IPCC used 20 years of period 1986-2005 to compare the climate change (Table  3.1) and will use the years 1995–2014 in its Sixth Assessment Report. But what I remember GCM’s input data were 1850-2005 and afterwards year periods 2005 to 2100 are GCM’s output and most of studies considered time period 1970-2004 as baseline period.

Effect of different baseline period of US

According to NOAA blog "The influence of long-term global warming is obvious: the earliest map in the series has the most widespread and darkest blues, and the most recent map has the most widespread and darkest reds. Today, the normal annual temperatures across the country are warmer than the 20th-century average virtually everywhere. From 1901-1930, the annual average temperature was mostly colder than the 20th-century average"

Adaptation strategy for maize crop

 Dear Friends,

I have noticed that the recently published most manuscript showed nitrogen and irrigation managements are the best adaptation strategy to cope with climate change. Unfortunately, they create environmental problem rather than increasing crop yield.

Identification of the appropriate management strategy and technologies to attain the aforesaid objective is critical. To head towards zero waste with agriculture while maintaining environmental sustainability in the future is even more daunting. Substantially, the environmental management systems can be balanced by eco-friendly practices in agriculture (manage the sowing dates), extended production responsibilities (planning for sowing management effects), and improved crop handling (reduction in water wastage). Thus, a balanced economy can be achieved by holistic and systematic thinking (crop modelling), toxic substances reduction/elimination (application of fewer fertilizers) leading to waste reduction. Apart from this, farmer awareness with the policies and ongoing research can also help in strategic management with agriculture, and thereby environment can easily be collaborated and outreached. (Srivastava et al., 2022)"

N Fertilizer

 High application of N fertilizers can create environment problem as when runoff occurs those fertilizers will become pollutant. Also, ammonia emissions will be higher due to dry surface because of extreme weather. Ammonia considered as green house gas which increase the climate change. Hence, in any condition, Fertilizer can not be good adaptation strategy. 

Irrigation

Further, irrigation will increase due to extreme temperature or warming climate. But, ground water is declining due to high demand for drinking and agriculture is the only sector which consume a lot of water. Hence, irrigation is also not the good adaptation strategy to cope with climate change.

Sowing dates

Other adaptation such as evolution of new variety is expensive. Hence, shifting sowing date can be a good adaptation strategy. But shifting sowing date is a local based management in India. As India is a diverse country and management can vary at regional level too. Hence local management based adaption strategy can be useful.  Moreover, the estimation of crop productivity was more significant on a local scale rather than on a regional one.  Implementing local approaches to improve the adaptation strategies through crop-climate modelling for the farmers and stakeholders. Hence, effective adaptation strategies need to be evaluated on a local basis first than on a regional basis to reduce the impact of climate change. Thus, modelling of adaptation strategies will be locally relevant for a longer term to be resilient to future climate change.

Sowing date as adaptation Strategy

Recent study evaluated shifting sowing dates as adaptation strategy for maize crop in Eastern India. For that Four RCP's (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) were used  for the year period 2021-50 and 2051-2081 of 17 GCMs. Methodology is presented below.

Below figure (a and b) shows the evaluation of sowing dates to simulated average grain yield for all the sites with current climate (baseline) under rainfed and irrigated seasons using violin plot for all scenarios. Moreover, the coefficients of variables were estimated to analyze the performance of the sowing dates under rainfed and irrigated seasons.

Figure also shows that early sowing dates 25 Dec and 5 Jan are suitable for all the RCP scenarios of CMIP5 climate projections and gave higher yield under both time periods. Whilst, the late sowing dates (25 Jan and 5 Feb) were unsuitable due to high uncertainty, low grain yield than the baseline, and earlier sowing dates for both the time periods. The sowing date (15 Jan) gave a notable estimated yield but the yield deviation was high for both time slice 2050s and 2080s in all the RCP scenarios.

How shifting sowig dates affects

Thus, the early sowing dates faced a dry spell while the late sowing dates faced high rainfall, thereby indicating crop failure in both cases. The shifting sowing dates can alter the grain filling period which is beneficial for the accumulation of dry matter in the grain. In addition, the distribution of rainfall within the crop growing period can alter the effects of the temperature. Moreover, increasing CO2 can harm crop yield if the maximum photosynthesis rate is exceeded.

Above figure indicates that the earlier sowing date 30 May and late sowing date 30 June under rainfed condition, while earlier sowing dates 25 December under irrigated condition showed less reduction in grain yield in both historic and future periods. Moreover, shifting sowing dates had a larger influence in the future periods than the historic period for the Purlia and Birbhum districts, while West Medinipur and Bankura districts, earlier sowing dates showed less reduction in grain yield in comparison to the delayed sowing dates under irrigated condition. Furthermore, late sowing date 30 June had a larger influence in future periods than the historic one, while in West Medinipur district, earlier sowing dates are more influential under rainfed conditions. Thus, under the rainfed condition, the earlier sowing dates (30 May and 30 June) show a reduction effect in the grain yield in future periods in all the RCPs for all districts except the West Medinipur. 

However, delaying the sowing period until 10 July had a negative effect for the West Medinipur and Bankura districts specifically. Under irrigated condition particularly, with the late sowing dates a consistent grain yield reduction was observed across all the districts in all scenarios and time periods. Also, all the sowing dates showed a reduction in yield with increasing RCP especially for RCP 8.5, and the time period 2080s had more impact on the grain yield than 2050s in comparison to the historic period. 

Is it beneficial as a management ?

• Well, first of all, well calibrated model needed because of reliability and for that strong data required. 
• The sowing date (5 Jan) was suitable for the time slice 2021–50 in all the RCP scenario, while earlier sowing date (25 Dec) was found to be suitable in the time slice period of 2051–80 with RCPs 8.5 for the irrigated season. 
• The sowing dates, 10 and 20 Jun were effective in RCPs 2.6, and 4.5 for the time slice 2051–2080 under rainfed season. 
• Effectiveness of late sowing dates was higher in RCPs 6.0, and 8.5 for both the time periods under rainfed season. 
• The changing sowing dates can reduce the effect of temperature on sensitive crop growth stage in irrigated season, while it can help to meet the precipitation on the sensitive crop growth stages. 
• Henceforth, the shifting of sowing dates can be adopted effectively and economically with less imports to reduce the detrimental climate change impact.

References:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0959652622002402?via%3Dihub

https://sites.google.com/view/rk-srivastava/home

Adaptations and mitigation: Questions and answers part 1

Dear friends,

Some questions and answers related with adaptation and mitigation to cope with climate change.

Q: Why do we need adaptation strategies?

Ans: Climate adaptation activities are efforts to prepare or adjust to future climate changes. Updating building infrastructure to better withstand a hotter climate is one example of adapting to climate change. Adaptation can consist of a wide variety of actions by an individual, community, or organization to prepare for, or respond to, climate change impacts.

Q: How to implement adaptation strategies at the local level?

Ans: Adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects by society or ecosystem. Adaptation can consist of a wide variety of actions by an individual, community, or organization to prepare for, or respond to, climate change impacts.

Implementation adaptation strategies at the local level:

- Information on risks and vulnerabilities to identify needs and appropriate adaptation options

- Build projected climate change related trend to present scenario and vulnerability assessment based on current climate change.

- Integration of climate adaptation into sustainable development policy, resource and

infrastructure planning, and design standards at national to local levels

- Develop robust resource mobilisation mechanisms for adaptation that ensure the flow of both financial and technical support to local people.

- Education and communication

- Learning & knowledge management

- Research and development

Climate preparedness and adaptation

References:

• https://sites.google.com/view/rk-srivastava/publications

Climate Change: questions and answers part 1

Dear Friends, 

Climate change is now occurring all over world in a different way. Some countries are facing as extreme events such as extreme temperature, high intensity of rainfall and changed rainfall pattern. Some countries are also facing see level rises, high frequency of flood, melting ices and breaking icebergs, high frequency of wild fires due to rising temperature and these events are abruptly increasing and observed. Recently,  one report has been published in dw news "how melting icebergs in all over world" and weather warning in Europe has been increase as Europe now facing unusual stroms. Moreover, one report was published about drying Rhine river due to climate change and there are several incidents in India. However, Climate change is not a new topic. It was happening in historic time and several civilization was over due to extreme events.

Climate change

Further, climate change is long term process and it can not be over in one day. That can stop by spreading awareness about environment and how climate change is happening. There are several programs and research already ongoing funded by several agencies such as FAO, WHO, UNFCC, IPCC and local governments. Some time they also release some regulation regarding the climate change extreme and warnings.

Here, I am presenting some questions and answers which i submitted during one training course " Building resilience to climate change courses I and II" by united nation university Japan at IIT Kharagpur in year 2015. Hopefully, it will to help to under stand climate change. If any you have any question, Please let me know in comment section. Feel free for comments and suggestion.

NOAA logo

• Atmosphere has been mostly directly affected by human activities.Atmosphere contain the green house gases and these gases directly affect the atmosphere.

• There is rapid increase in the production of green house gases with increase in the no. of industries and also by methane gas in the atmosphere.

• Increase in radiative forcing from human activity is attributable mainly to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. CO2 is produced by fossil fuel burning and other activities such as cement production and tropical deforestation.

• The atmosphere contains several trace gases which absorb and emit infrared radiation. These so-called greenhouse gases absorb infrared radiation, emitted by the Earth’s surface.

• The action of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in trapping infrared radiation is called the greenhouse effect.

• Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide.

Question and answer:

Q: Identify the 6 main components of the biophysical Earth system. Which one do you think has the most important role in determining global climate? Which of these are likely to have been most directly affected by human activities during the last thousand years?

Ans: The 6 main components of the biophysical Earth system is:

1. Lithosphere

2. Hydrosphere

3. Cryosphere

4. Atmosphere

5. Troposphere

6. Stratosphere

Since atmosphere contains the green house gases and is characterized by temperature, wind, precipitation, clouds and other weather elements, so atmosphere has the most important role in determining global climate.