Science_blog

Saturday, 18 March 2023

Adaptations and mitigation: Questions and answers part 2

Q: What is the impact of CO2 increase on the water cycle predicted by various models?

Ans: The impact of CO2 increase on the water cycle predicted by various models conclude that models of climate change may be underestimating how much water is likely to run off the land and back into the sea as atmospheric chemistry changes. Runoff may be as much as 17 percent higher in forests of the eastern United States, when models account for changes in soil nitrogen levels and atmospheric ozone exposure.

Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration directly affects plant growth, which inherently is tied with the hydrological cycle through lowered rates of stomatal conductance and increases in leaf area. Decreased stomatal conductance could reduce evapotranspiration (ET) whereas increased leaf area could contribute to increases in ET potentially offsetting the reduction in stomatal conductance to some degree. Many studies have indicated that combined effects from elevated CO2 concentrations may lessen ET, resulting in increased runoff. However, global warming can increase the ability of air to absorb water as temperatures rise, suggesting increases in potential evapotranspiration (PET).

Impact of CO2 on water cycle

Q: What are the principal interactions between CC and SD?

Ans: The principal interactions between CC and SD are:

First, future economic development and the well-being of large numbers of human beings would be threatened by global warming.

Second, social welfare and equity would also be undermined in an unprecedented manner, by climate change. In particular, both intra- and inter-generational equity are likely to be worsened, especially since poorer nations and disadvantaged groups within nations are more vulnerable and the costs of damage, as well as of necessary adaptation and mitigation efforts will be unevenly distributed. Sustainomics suggests that inequitable distributions are not only ethically unappealing, but are also likely to be unsustainable in the long run, because they undermine social cohesion and exacerbate

conflicts over scarce resources.

Third, the environmental sustainability viewpoint draws attention to the fact that increasing anthropogenic emissions and accumulations of GHGs might significantly perturb a critical global subsystem – the atmosphere. Changes in the global climate are likely to threaten the stability of a range of critical physical, ecological and socioeconomic systems and subsystems at all levels – regional, national and sub national.

Q: Describe the the three types of capital that are essential for SD.

Ans: The three types of capital that are essential for SD:

1) Natural resources are all of those things that we take out of nature and use: water, plants, animals, and materials from the earth such as fossil fuels, metals and minerals. All of these are things that we use up, either as raw material or as part of a production process.

2) Human capital is each individual's personal skills and abilities, physical and mental health, and education. Social capital is the connections in a community -- the ways in which people interact and relate to each other. The simplest connections are connections to family, friends and neighbors. On a larger scale, we form connections through community and volunteer organizations, the ability of groups of people to form governments to deal with common problems, and the ability of people to form companies to create goods and services to satisfy the needs of the community.

3) Built capital includes roads, heavy equipment, factory buildings, houses, and apartment buildings. It includes basic necessities like food and clothing. It also includes things that, although not strictly necessary, many people in developed countries would be loath to do without, like dishwashers, cars, telephones and computers.

Climate Change: questions and answers part 5

Q: What are the key assumptions on which the IPCC SRES scenarios are based? What are the main differences between the A1FI and B2 scenarios? What is the principal difference between the IPCC SRES (pre-2012) and RCP (AR5) scenarios?

Ans:

A1FI: Deals with rapid economic growth in global context and rapid introductions of new and more efficient technologies,with emphasis on fossil fuel intensive,while

B2: Deals with an emphasis on local solutions to economic and environmental sustainability having more environmental and original approaches.

The principal difference between the IPCC SRES (pre-2012) and RCP (AR5) scenarios:

1. The IPCC SRES (pre-2012), scenarios had socioeconomic storylines but climate mitigation options were not included as in case of RCP (AR5) scenario.

2. RCP (AR5) scenario intended to provide a flexible, interactive, and iterative approach to climate change scenarios which were not included in IPCC SRES (pre-2012).

3. In RCP (AR5) scenario, socioeconomic scenarios, emissions, and subsequent radiative forcing pathways were linked to one,which were absent in IPCC SRES (pre-2012) .

4. All RCPs adopted stringent air pollution mitigation policies and thus have much lower tropospheric ozone and aerosol abundances than the SRES scenarios, which ignored the role of air quality regulations.

Q: Why is it important to be able to downscale climate models to spatial scales below about 50 km?

Ans: It important to downscale climate models to spatial scales below about 50 km,because Global Climate Models (GCMs) used for climate studies and climate projections, run at coarse spatial resolution (in 2012, typically of the order 50 kilometres (31 mi),and were unable to resolve important sub-grid scale features such as clouds and topography. As a result GCM output can not be used for local impact studies.
To overcome this problem downscaling methods were used to obtain local-scale weather and climate, particularly at the surface level, from regional-scale atmospheric variables that are provided by GCMs.

Q: If you know the physical laws for how a system changes over time, in what ways could this system be unpredictable? What is this relevance of this to climate change modelling?

Ans: If I knew that the physical laws for a system changes over time, then the system could be unpredictable in a number of ways:

1. It's a complex system that intervenes with the physical law having time delays.

2. Over passage of time,there could be non linear interactions within the system.

3. There might be loopholes in the feedback system.

4. Just because the system might be deterministic,it doesn't guarantee its predictability to the future.

The relevance of the above to climate change modelling are:

1. weather can be predicted.

2. Catastrophic shifts in the ecosystems can be predicted over time.

3. Ocean ecosystem can be predicted.

Q: Why can it be helpful to model a system at the level of individual agents instead of only considering population averages in the model? Why wouldn't both approaches give the same answer?

Ans: It can be helpful to model a system at the level of individual agents instead of only considering population averages in the model because,it's a complex system and we often need to use techniques like agent based modelling to understand how system behaves,the ways in which agents are being connected to each other and how this connection would ultimately effect the system behavior.

Both approaches would not give the same answer because Individual agents probability of occurrence in a population set would be different from those of when we consider the population averages.i.e the in case of individual agents the probability of occurrence would be considered that are most likely to occur while in population average,the average probabilities would be considered to determine the result.

References:

https://sites.google.com/view/rk-srivastava/publications

Climate Change: questions and answers part 4

Q: Outline the processes that led to the establishment of IPCC and UNFCC and describe how their roles differ?

Ans: The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is an international environmental treaty negotiated at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) and formally known as the Earth Summit which was held in Rio de Janeiro from 3 to 14 June 1992. The main objective of the UNFCCC is to "stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a scientific intergovernmental body under the auspices of the United Nations.It was established in year 1988 by two United Nations organizations, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). It reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate change. It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters. The IPCC published its first assessment report in 1990, a supplementary report in 1992, a second assessment report (SAR) in 1995, a third assessment report (TAR) in 2001, a fourth assessment report (AR4) in 2007 and a fifth assessment report (AR5) in 2014.

Q: How does the differentiated availability of energy across the Earth's surface lead to different climates and weather systems around the world?

Ans: The distribution of solar radiation on the Earth's surface regulates the length and order of the seasons. Solar radiation strikes the earth more directly at the equator and tropics than in polar regions. More heat is therefore transferred to Earth in the tropics than at the poles.Global atmospheric circulation patterns represent the planet’s attempt to move warm air toward the poles and cold air toward the equatorial region.

These patterns are complicated by Earth's rotation,dividing into three large convection cells in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres that control climate patterns. Short-term climate fluctuations occur on cycles lasting thousands of years and are related to variations in Earth’s orbit around the Sun that cause the amount of incoming solar radiation to vary with time. These variations result from changes in the shape of Earth's orbit and changes in the magnitude and direction of tilt of Earth's axis, thus lead to different climates and weather systems around the world.

Q: In the IPCC definition of radiative forcing which is more important, natural or anthropogenic climate forcing factors? Explain.

Ans: Anthropogenic factors are more important according to IPCC definition of radiative forces as follows:

The Industrial Revolution in the 19th century saw the large-scale use of fossil fuels for industrial activities. Natural resources are being used extensively for construction, industries, transport, and consumption.

Fossil fuels such as oil, coal and natural gas supply most of the energy needed to run vehicles, generate electricity for industries, households, etc. Changes in land use pattern, deforestation, land clearing, agriculture, and other activities have all led to a rise in the emission of carbon dioxide. A large amount of nitrous oxide emission has been attributed to fertilizer application. The human impact on climate during this era greatly exceeds that due to known changes in natural processes, such as solar changes and volcanic eruptions.

The differences in radiative forcing estimates between the present day and the start of the industrial era for solar irradiance changes and volcanoes are both very small compared to the differences in radiative forcing estimated to have resulted from human activities. As a result, in today’s atmosphere, the radiative forcing from human activities is much more important for current and future climate change than the estimated radiative forcing from changes in natural processes.

Q: From an Earth system feedback perspective which is more likely to increase the impact of global warming over the next 100-200 years: melting polar ice, or changes in cloud cover? Justify your answer.

Ans: Melting polar ice is more likely to increase the impact of global warming over the next 100-200 years, as the ice is disappearing quite fast; not only is albedo decreasing, but the loss triggers a positive feedback. By exposing the ocean surface to sunlight, the water warms up. This melts the ice from underneath, while man-made CO2 in the atmosphere warms the surface.

Humidity also increases; water vapour is a powerful greenhouse gas. More ice therefore melts, which exposes more water, which melts more ice from underneath. Clouds can increase albedo (a negative feedback), but also warming (a positive feedback), but sea ice is a critical player of Earth's changing climate. Sea ice cools by reflecting incoming solar radiation back into space. Because of its light color, sea ice has what is known as high albedo, which is the percentage of solar radiation a surface reflects back to space.

Q. Attempt to explain the observed acceleration in Arctic summer sea ice loss since about the year 2000.

Ans: Less ice on the surface of arctic in summer and what is there is not thick as it use to be. It's not covering the ocean as it used to be and what ice is there is thin so it melts quickly. If we look at the Arctic summer sea ice loss for subsequent years from 2000 onwards, we can see that it's thinner if we look for a gap of a year only while thicker in case of gap of three years. These trends indicate global see level is increasing in comparison to sea ice. Sea level change in India is about one mm/year.

Q. In the context of climate and weather, give one example of a slow-onset event and one example of a rapid-onset event in your district / country / region in the last 1-5 years. Do you think that the frequency of such events is increasing or decreasing; if you think there is a change do you think it can be linked to global warming; and what do you think is the nature of that link?

Ans: Slow onset event is melting of ice in India. The ice loss is 1mm/year in India, due to which the sea level is increasing. Rapid onset event is no. of cyclones in India 1- 5 years. Recently, the cyclone affected the major parts of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh in India. The frequency of cyclones increased in last 1-5 years in comparison to previous years.
Yes, the frequency of such events is seen to increase in the last 1-5 years.
Yes it can be linked to global warming, as earth's atmosphere get heated up due to green house gases as a result of which there is rapid increase in temperature over the recent years. Melting ice and cyclone regarded as natural factors but as their magnitude is increased due to global warming.

Climate Change: questions and answers part 3

Ques: We would appreciate if you can suggest any potential questions for this purpose. Can you say whether the climate change has similar or variable impact on food production at varying latitude? If so, explain the reason for the similar or variable impact?

Ans: Yes, The climate change have a variable impact on food production at varying latitude because change in latitude changes the climate which may be either tropical and temperate and also the belt of vegetation which primarily depends upon climatic conditions. It can be seen that in the tropical climate, higher temperature will create more atmospheric water demand leading to water stress. The developing countries are located in tropical climate which have fewer resources with low adaptive capacity to the changing agricultural production because of climate change. So, it is not necessary that climate will have similar impact on variation of latitude, it will always be variable in nature.

Ques: What are the properties of crop model for its application in climate change impact analysis?
Ans: The properties of crop model for its application in climate change impact analysis:

1) Basic growth processes

2) Phenological development

3) Biomass accumulation

4) Growth and yield

5) Soil water balance

6) Soil carbon and nitrogen balance

Use soil-crop models system (DSSAT, APSIM, Expert-N, InfoCrop) for:

a) evaluation of adaptation options:

– Weather uncertainty

–Input uncertainty (Price and management)

b) evaluation of climate change mitigation:

– Water and nutrient management to reduce greenhouse gas emission

– Organic farming for carbon sequestration

Q: Often precipitation and temperature are the most commonly required parameters used for impact studies. Give some examples of impact study procedures (ex. flood) and the parameters that you would use from climate projections.

Ans: After downscaling either by statistical or dynamical method following procedure are adopted:

A) Qualitative Description

B) Indicators of change

C) Compliance to standards

D) Cost and benefit

E) Geographical analysis

F) Dealing with uncertainty

The parameters that would be used from climate projections are:

Precipitation, Temperature, CO2, Land use, Pollution, Water resources, agriculture.

Q: Describe the type of downscaling approach you would use for (a) a flood study and (b) a rice yield change study. Give reasons for your choice

Ans: For flood study dynamic scaling method would be used because,it is based upon assumptions and resolutions and if forced with with observations it can simulate real natural events which is not possible in case of statistical scaling approach.

While, for rice yield statistical scaling method would be used because, it is based upon generation of synthetic series of data at a local variable site between local scale predict and large scale predictors, as results are limited to local climatic conditions and enormous amount of previous year data is needed to compute the analysis.

Q: What is the difference between climate change adaptation and climate change mitigation?

Ans: Adaptation and mitigation are complementary to each other. For example, if mitigation measures are undertaken effectively, lesser will be the impacts to which we will need to adapt. Similarly, if adaptation measures are strong, lesser might be the impacts associated with any given degree of climate change.
There are some differences between adaptation and mitigation, but if the key vulnerabilities to climate change are to be addressed, adaptation is essential as even after the most rigorous mitigation efforts, climate change will continue in the next few decades. At the same time, mitigation is necessary because reliance on adaptation alone could eventually lead to a magnitude of climate change to which effective adaptation is possible only at very high social, environmental, and economic costs.

Some observed incidents:

Reports

Climate Change: questions and answers part 2

Q: What is the key principle in naming variables in an influence diagram? How can one identify the focus variable in a feedback loop?

Ans: The key principles in naming variables in an influence diagram may be either in increasing or decreasing in a feedback loop,which are as follows :
1. Quantification of variables

2. Use clear language that describes the variables in their neutral sense

3. The links (arrows) in diagram should indicate the flow of influence or information between the variables.

One can identify the focus variable in a feedback loop if it answers the following questions positively by:

1. How the variable effect the environment/object.

2. Will the variable have positive impact.

3. What is the importance of such a variable in a feedback loop.

4. Will the variable have multiple benefits to affected variables.

5. Recognition of benefits by selection of that focus variable.

6. Prior experimental trial or research concluded for selection of focus variable.

Q: climate change can increase disaster losses significantly?
Ans: Climate change can increase disaster losses significantly in following ways:
1) Direct climate impact changes weather variables e.g. average temperature, rainfall, wind speed, seasonality and disruptions to major weather systems e.g. ENSO.
2) Indirect impacts to natural systems e.g. changes to fire regimes, disease vector profiles, ecosystem functioning, fauna breeding cycles, flora pollination etc.
Indirect impacts are also influenced by non-climate anthropogenic influences. E.g. fire regimes are affected by: climate (rainfall, temperature, wind) natural ecosystem functioning (vegetation growth, distribution) and human influences (deforestation, plantation forestry, fire prevention). Thus,climate change can increase disaster losses significantly.

Ques: What approaches would you take to reduce climate change associated risks under uncertainty of projections?
Ans: Approaches that should be taken to reduce climate change associated risks under uncertainty of projections are as follows :
1) Imperfection and limitation on science such as feedback and tipping point uncertainties need to be quantified through comparison with observations.
2) coping with extremes associated with uncertainty projections during climate change.
3) Reduction strategies should be adopted.
4) Rare extreme events should have a proper check out else,they will become more frequent causing large damages unless the reduction measures are implemented.

Q: What is your projection of the future (society, economy, CO2 emission, climate)?
Ans: My projection of the future is socio-economic balance of the society in global context. Socio-economic changes are key drivers of projected changes in future emissions and climate, and are also key determinants of most climate change impacts, potential adaptations and vulnerability. They also influence the policy options available for responding to climate change. Many scenarios are developed at a broader scale, requiring downscaling of aggregate socio-economic scenario information. the CO2 emission sources should be regulated so that the concentration of GHG gases in atmosphere is low. Promotion of planting more and more trees should be adopted to safe guard our environment. Economic feasibility study and risk analysis strategies for climate change should be there.

Q: Do you think that we can (should) mitigate the climate change (i.e., reducing CO2 emission very much)?
Ans: Yes, we should mitigate the climate change through reducing the CO2 emission. Human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas, have caused a substantial increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. This increase in atmospheric CO2 from about 280 to more than 380 parts per million (ppm) over the last 250 years is causing measurable global warming.
Potential adverse impacts include sea-level rise; increased frequency and intensity of wildfires, floods, droughts, and tropical storms; changes in the amount, timing, and distribution of rain, snow, and runoff; and disturbance of coastal marine and other ecosystems. Rising atmospheric CO2 is also increasing the absorption of CO2 by seawater, causing the ocean to become more acidic, with potentially disruptive effects on marine plankton and coral reefs. If we have a proper check and concern and took proper regulatory measures to the above aforesaid problems then we can mitigate the climate change.

Q: Can you give an example of agricultural production practice for climate change adaptation and mitigation?
Ans: Climate change mitigation in agriculture production practice can be done in following no. of ways:
A) Improved cropland management
– nutrient management,
– tillage/residue management and
– water management
B) Restoration of degraded soils
C) Agriculture can help to mitigate climate change by
– reducing emissions of greenhouse gases and
– sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere in the soil.
D) The potential of organic agriculture for both effects is high.
E) Inclusion of leguminous crops, to reduce emission of N2O -N
F) Diversified crop rotation with green manure
G) Avoiding continuous flooding in rice will help in reducing emission of CH4

The improved practices stops soil erosion and converts carbon losses into gains. If mitigation strategies are adopted effectively, climate change will favor adaptation also, hence crop yield will be enhanced as it would utilize carbon which was preserved during mitigation strategies adopted.

Increased agricultural output in a region will be there if adaptation and mitigation works simultaneously but complementary to each other.

Q: What do you think about green energy and green world ?

Ans: I hope for 'Green world with green energy' in the near future, comprising of greenery and pollution free environment with emphasis on utilization of green energy in global context.

Where to get climate data ?

The websites list to get climate data:

https://www.wcrp-climate.org/
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5
https://www.dwd.de/EN/ourservices/cdc/cdc_ueberblick-klimadaten_en.html
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/cdo-web/
http://www.worldclim.org/
https://www.researchgate.net/deref/https%3A%2F%2Fesgf-node.llnl.gov%2Fsearch%2Fcmip6%2F
https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/projections-cordex-domains-single-levels?tab=overview
http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/
http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/faowater/Applications/CLIMWAT2.zip
https://www.wunderground.com/
https://power.larc.nasa.gov/data-access-viewer/
https://globalweather.tamu.edu/

Saturday, 11 March 2023

EPUB format

A file saved with the .epub is a file format used for storing files as eBooks and other types of content. EPUB is the short name of electronic publication and named the official standard of the International Digital Publishing Forum (IDPF).

EPUB files can store words, images, sheets, fonts, metadata details, and tables of content. They are considered layout agnostic, meaning that screen size doesn’t affect the formatting—EPUB files can display content on screens as small as 3.5″. This and the fact it’s a freely available standard is why a majority of eReaders support EPUB files.

In Ubuntu, you can save your file or document i.e. text, image, table of content in EPUB format by clicking on "export as" tab in "File" menu. However to open these files you need other software to install. I tried to open pdf viewer, image viewer, Libre office files system and it could not open. Hence, I look to internate and i found that it is suitable for Kindle to read ebooks.

How to Open an EPUB File

EPUB files can be opened on a computer with several free programs, such as Calibre, Adobe Digital Editions, Apple Books, EPUB File Reader, Stanza Desktop, Okular, and Sumatra PDF. In addition to a few of the programs just mentioned, Mac users can read EPUB files with Readium. Google Play Books is another place you can open EPUB files by uploading them to your Google account and viewing it through the web client.

Convert an EPUB File

1. Calibre is the premier program for this. It converts to and from most other eBook formats and other supported conversions are EPUB, FB2, HTML, LIT, LRF, PDF, PDB, RTF, TXT, and SNB.

2. Zamzar is an online EPUB converter worth mentioning. You can use the website to convert the book to PDF, TXT, FB2, and other similar text formats.

3. Online eBook Converter is one way to make an EPUB file from another document file like AZW or PDF.